21 February 2012
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown raises concerns of an arms race in the region should Iran acquire nuclear weapons and calls on the Government to put pressure on Russia, China, Turkey and India to back the sanctions against Iran.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con): I felt like intervening on the right hon. Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds) to give him a fourth minute of extra time, but I restrained myself. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) on securing the debate, but that is as far as I can go, because I disagree with almost every word he said. I strongly agree with my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington (Sir Malcolm Rifkind), who moved the amendment. We need to be very careful about how the tone of the debate comes across and ensure that it is not bellicose. I agree with almost everything he said, with one exception: I think that any military intervention in Iran would not be a short-term matter and would become a longer-term matter, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex (Nicholas Soames), who is no longer in his seat, made clear.
Having said that, the Iranians—the Persians—are a proud nation with a very ancient history. They have a very educated middle class, and I doubt very much that they approve of what the Iranian leadership is doing. Nevertheless, they do have such a leadership. There will be elections on 22 March for the legislative assembly and next year for the presidency. As has been said, President Ahmadinejad cannot stand again, so there will inevitably be a change of regime. As we heard from the former Foreign Secretary, the right hon. Member for Blackburn (Mr Straw), a change of regime can bring about a change of policy, so we do not know what will follow in Iran when President Ahmadinejad retires. We do know that Iran has defied six UN Security Council resolutions. President Ahmadinejad recently said that he will secure an important nuclear achievement, and we know that he is trying to achieve the 20% threshold. I appreciate the semantics my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay used, but I am in no doubt that the regime is trying to acquire the capability to produce nuclear weapons. If it manages to acquire that capability, I am pretty certain that it will use it. I do not think that we disagree thus far.
I am sorry that the right hon. Member for Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Mr Llwyd) is no longer here, because in the debate in this House on 24 September 2002 on whether to go to war with Iraq I said that I doubted whether the dodgy dossier was true and whether there were any weapons of mass destruction. I went on to say that if we weakened Iraq we would have problems with Iran, and that is exactly what we are seeing today—Iranian interference in Iraq on a huge scale. It is trying to destabilise the schools, and I doubt whether President Maliki can do very much without authorisation from his Iranian paymasters.
Mr Brian Binley (Northampton South) (Con) indicated assent.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: As my hon. Friend, who is often spot on, will know, Iraq is virtually a proxy state of Iran. That is a hugely important step for the world, because both countries combined have 19% of the world’s proven oil reserves, so instability in the region will lead to a real problem. That compares with a figure of about 7% in Kuwait and about 2% in the United Arab Emirates. To put it into context, the figure for the proven oil reserve in the hands of Iran and Iraq is very significant indeed.
The Iranian regime not only promotes instability and terror in its own country—the example was given of five executions only last night—but is one of the greatest exporters of terror around the world. I have always been a supporter of Israel, but I would shudder to live in Israel today, with Hezbollah from the Syrian state and Hamas from the Palestinian state. The Israelis are in a very difficult position. If war were to break out in Iran, I agree with my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex that the proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, would become even more active than they are at present.
I agreed with my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary when he said at the weekend that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could trigger an arms race in the middle east. One or two Members have disputed that, but we should look at history and the example of Pakistan and India. The moment one got nuclear capability, the other had to have it. If Iran acquires a nuclear capability, Saudi Arabia will probably do so, the Syrian regime, if it survives, will certainly want to, and perhaps other states in the middle east will, too.
Mr Baron: Given that Israel’s acquiring nuclear weapons has not led to its Arab neighbours acquiring them, why does my hon. Friend believe that Iran’s Muslim neighbours would have a greater urgency to do so?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: I knew somebody was going to make that point to me, so I anticipated it. Of course Israel, although never acknowledged, has a nuclear capability, but the difference between Israel and Iran is that Israel is a stable democracy and Iran is an unpredictable country—under its current regime. That is not to say that under a future regime it will not change, but under its current regime I should not predict the circumstances in which it might or might not use such nuclear capability.
The whole essence of the cold war—Russia, America, Britain, France—was that none of us dared use nuclear weapons even if we had the inclination, which I am sure we never did, because we knew the destruction that they would cause, having seen it in Japan during the second world war. It is a huge thing to press the nuclear button, so, despite my hon. Friend disagreeing with me, I think that we have to be very careful about reaching such a situation with Iran.
The other point that I wish to make, in the rapidly shrinking time that I have this evening, is that I wholly support the efforts of my right hon. Friends in the coalition to bring about a diplomatic solution. That solution has to be backed up with sanctions, and I wholly believe that we must have the military option available to us when we go into the diplomatic negotiating chamber. I profoundly disagree with my hon. Friend and the right hon. Member for Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Mr Llwyd), because if we rule out that option before we have even completed diplomatic negotiations we will be in a considerably weaker position.
Of those three legs to the stool, we need to concentrate on sanctions, and the greatest role that the British Foreign Office—our Government, our Ministers—can play is to get some of our allies on side: to get Russia, China, Turkey and India all on side to make those sanctions effective. If the reports in the newspapers today are to be believed, and Turkey, China and India are participating in barter deals to get around our banking sanctions, that very considerably weakens them. I hope that my hon. Friends on the Front Bench take that point well and truly on board.
This country has always been very good at soft power. Our diplomatic service has always been the best and our British Council has always been the best, but in this situation one of the greatest contributions we can make to resolving the problem without the necessity of going to war—I cannot stress enough that I do not advocate war, which is the last thing we want to see—is, as the right hon. Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth) said, to look very carefully at the BBC World Service. The BBC’s Farsi service can contribute a huge amount to the situation, and we should go the extra mile to ensure that it is not jammed, that we do not cut the service and that we broadcast the optimum number of hours on shortwave, over the internet and on television, for those middle class people in—
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EARLIER INTERVENTION IN THE SAME DEBATE
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: Given all that my right hon. Friend has said, especially on the unanimity on the six UN resolutions, was he as disturbed as I was at reports in today’s press that some of our friends and allies are engaging in barter deals to weaken the unprecedented sanctions to which he and the E3 plus 3 have agreed?
Mr Hague: I would be very disappointed if that took place, but I believe the sanctions will be well upheld across the EU. Some countries have difficulties because of the extent of their supplies from Iran, which is why we have phased in those measures. The sanctions will also be well supported by many nations outside the EU. Other major consumers of Iranian oil have indicated that they will reduce their purchases or that they have already done so. My hon. Friend may have seen press reports this morning that Iran is currently having difficulty selling a large part of its oil production.
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Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con): I felt like intervening on the right hon. Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds) to give him a fourth minute of extra time, but I restrained myself. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) on securing the debate, but that is as far as I can go, because I disagree with almost every word he said. I strongly agree with my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington (Sir Malcolm Rifkind), who moved the amendment. We need to be very careful about how the tone of the debate comes across and ensure that it is not bellicose. I agree with almost everything he said, with one exception: I think that any military intervention in Iran would not be a short-term matter and would become a longer-term matter, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex (Nicholas Soames), who is no longer in his seat, made clear.
Having said that, the Iranians—the Persians—are a proud nation with a very ancient history. They have a very educated middle class, and I doubt very much that they approve of what the Iranian leadership is doing. Nevertheless, they do have such a leadership. There will be elections on 22 March for the legislative assembly and next year for the presidency. As has been said, President Ahmadinejad cannot stand again, so there will inevitably be a change of regime. As we heard from the former Foreign Secretary, the right hon. Member for Blackburn (Mr Straw), a change of regime can bring about a change of policy, so we do not know what will follow in Iran when President Ahmadinejad retires. We do know that Iran has defied six UN Security Council resolutions. President Ahmadinejad recently said that he will secure an important nuclear achievement, and we know that he is trying to achieve the 20% threshold. I appreciate the semantics my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay used, but I am in no doubt that the regime is trying to acquire the capability to produce nuclear weapons. If it manages to acquire that capability, I am pretty certain that it will use it. I do not think that we disagree thus far.
I am sorry that the right hon. Member for Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Mr Llwyd) is no longer here, because in the debate in this House on 24 September 2002 on whether to go to war with Iraq I said that I doubted whether the dodgy dossier was true and whether there were any weapons of mass destruction. I went on to say that if we weakened Iraq we would have problems with Iran, and that is exactly what we are seeing today—Iranian interference in Iraq on a huge scale. It is trying to destabilise the schools, and I doubt whether President Maliki can do very much without authorisation from his Iranian paymasters.
Mr Brian Binley (Northampton South) (Con) indicated assent.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: As my hon. Friend, who is often spot on, will know, Iraq is virtually a proxy state of Iran. That is a hugely important step for the world, because both countries combined have 19% of the world’s proven oil reserves, so instability in the region will lead to a real problem. That compares with a figure of about 7% in Kuwait and about 2% in the United Arab Emirates. To put it into context, the figure for the proven oil reserve in the hands of Iran and Iraq is very significant indeed.
The Iranian regime not only promotes instability and terror in its own country—the example was given of five executions only last night—but is one of the greatest exporters of terror around the world. I have always been a supporter of Israel, but I would shudder to live in Israel today, with Hezbollah from the Syrian state and Hamas from the Palestinian state. The Israelis are in a very difficult position. If war were to break out in Iran, I agree with my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex that the proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, would become even more active than they are at present.
I agreed with my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary when he said at the weekend that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could trigger an arms race in the middle east. One or two Members have disputed that, but we should look at history and the example of Pakistan and India. The moment one got nuclear capability, the other had to have it. If Iran acquires a nuclear capability, Saudi Arabia will probably do so, the Syrian regime, if it survives, will certainly want to, and perhaps other states in the middle east will, too.
Mr Baron: Given that Israel’s acquiring nuclear weapons has not led to its Arab neighbours acquiring them, why does my hon. Friend believe that Iran’s Muslim neighbours would have a greater urgency to do so?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: I knew somebody was going to make that point to me, so I anticipated it. Of course Israel, although never acknowledged, has a nuclear capability, but the difference between Israel and Iran is that Israel is a stable democracy and Iran is an unpredictable country—under its current regime. That is not to say that under a future regime it will not change, but under its current regime I should not predict the circumstances in which it might or might not use such nuclear capability.
The whole essence of the cold war—Russia, America, Britain, France—was that none of us dared use nuclear weapons even if we had the inclination, which I am sure we never did, because we knew the destruction that they would cause, having seen it in Japan during the second world war. It is a huge thing to press the nuclear button, so, despite my hon. Friend disagreeing with me, I think that we have to be very careful about reaching such a situation with Iran.
The other point that I wish to make, in the rapidly shrinking time that I have this evening, is that I wholly support the efforts of my right hon. Friends in the coalition to bring about a diplomatic solution. That solution has to be backed up with sanctions, and I wholly believe that we must have the military option available to us when we go into the diplomatic negotiating chamber. I profoundly disagree with my hon. Friend and the right hon. Member for Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Mr Llwyd), because if we rule out that option before we have even completed diplomatic negotiations we will be in a considerably weaker position.
Of those three legs to the stool, we need to concentrate on sanctions, and the greatest role that the British Foreign Office—our Government, our Ministers—can play is to get some of our allies on side: to get Russia, China, Turkey and India all on side to make those sanctions effective. If the reports in the newspapers today are to be believed, and Turkey, China and India are participating in barter deals to get around our banking sanctions, that very considerably weakens them. I hope that my hon. Friends on the Front Bench take that point well and truly on board.
This country has always been very good at soft power. Our diplomatic service has always been the best and our British Council has always been the best, but in this situation one of the greatest contributions we can make to resolving the problem without the necessity of going to war—I cannot stress enough that I do not advocate war, which is the last thing we want to see—is, as the right hon. Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth) said, to look very carefully at the BBC World Service. The BBC’s Farsi service can contribute a huge amount to the situation, and we should go the extra mile to ensure that it is not jammed, that we do not cut the service and that we broadcast the optimum number of hours on shortwave, over the internet and on television, for those middle class people in—
| Hansard
...
EARLIER INTERVENTION IN THE SAME DEBATE
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: Given all that my right hon. Friend has said, especially on the unanimity on the six UN resolutions, was he as disturbed as I was at reports in today’s press that some of our friends and allies are engaging in barter deals to weaken the unprecedented sanctions to which he and the E3 plus 3 have agreed?
Mr Hague: I would be very disappointed if that took place, but I believe the sanctions will be well upheld across the EU. Some countries have difficulties because of the extent of their supplies from Iran, which is why we have phased in those measures. The sanctions will also be well supported by many nations outside the EU. Other major consumers of Iranian oil have indicated that they will reduce their purchases or that they have already done so. My hon. Friend may have seen press reports this morning that Iran is currently having difficulty selling a large part of its oil production.
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